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I follow a trading system that makes decisions on a weekly basis but can be applied to daily or monthly data. This week, the daily view turned bearish and could be warning of a sell-off in stocks.My 26-week rate of change (ROC) trading system is designed to find the strongest ETFs in the market. It has a number of risk management tools built in because I believe that long-term investment success requires avoiding very large losses. I also define those risk management tools in advance because it is very difficult to make buy and sell decisions without rules. When relying on emotions rather than rules, I find that selling results from panic, and all too often, fear drives investors to sit on cash long after the selloff is over.Some traders successfully use their emotional judgments to make trading decisions. But I believe most traders are not successful with a "fly by the seat of their pants" approach, and I know I do best with a rules-based system.
The chart above shows the results of the trading system (red line) with a 70-day moving average applied to those results (blue line). Signals are interpreted just like they are with any moving average system, with sell signals coming when the system results are below the moving average.There is no action to take until the weekly chart confirms this signal. Daily data shows more whipsaw trades, which are trades that last only a short amount of time before being reversed. Whipsaw trades are one of the reasons trading costs are higher with daily data. They are not eliminated with weekly data, but they are less frequent.Because we do not have any signals in the weekly data, the portfolio remains unchanged. Continue to watch stocks closely for signs of a change in the trend.
What I'm seeing today is one of the biggest disconnects I've seen. It makes absolutely no sense!
For those who missed the move to all-time highs, a better buying opportunity may be right around the corner.
I discovered a collection of conflicting assertions that seemed to be pointing to a weak American consumer... but with a twist.