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Emerging markets have had a tough 2013 against the backdrop of the run in U.S. equities, and especially in Japanese equities. But it appears the 12% year-to-date decline in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (NYSE: EEM) has finally stalled at the halfway support of the 2012 to 2013 rally.
They say a rising tide floats all boats, and a return to new highs in the global bell weather S&P 500 instills confidence in stock markets worldwide.
EEM has traded between $45 and $36 since the middle of 2011, a $9 range. To determine the breakout target, we add $9 to the $45 resistance for a $54 target. Support sits at $36, the lows of the past two years, and roughly the midpoint of the move from $19 in 2008 to $50 in 2011.
The $54 target is about 36% higher than current prices, but traders who use a capital-preserving, stock substitution strategy could more than double their money on a move to that level.
One major advantage of using long call options rather than buying a stock outright is putting up much less capital to control 100 shares -- that's the power of leverage. But with all of the potential strike and expiration combinations, choosing an option can be a daunting task.
Simply put, you want to buy a high-probability option that has enough time to be right, so there are two rules traders should follow:
Rule One: Choose an option with a delta of 70 or above.
An option's strike price is the level at which the options buyer has the right to purchase the underlying stock or ETF without any obligation to do so. (In reality, you rarely convert the option into shares, but rather simply sell back the option you bought to exit the trade for a gain or loss.)
It is important to buy options that pay off from a modest price move in the underlying stock or ETF rather than those that only make money on the infrequent price explosion. In-the-money options are more expensive, but they're worth it, as your chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, out-of-the-money options that rarely pay off.
The options Greek delta approximates the odds that an option will be in the money at expiration. It is a measurement of how well an option follows the movement in the underlying security. You can find an option's delta using an options calculator, such as the one offered by the CBOE.
With EEM trading at about $39.60 at the time of this writing, an in-the-money $36 strike call option currently has $3.60 in real or intrinsic value. The remainder of the premium is the time value of the option. And this call option currently has a delta of about 72.
Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need -- at least three to six months -- for the trade to develop.
Time is an investor's greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks. Traders often do not buy enough time for the trade to achieve profitable results. Nothing is more frustrating than being right about a move only after the option has expired.
With these rules in mind, I would recommend the EEM Jan 2014 36 Calls at $4.75 or less.
A close below $36 in the stock on a weekly basis or the loss of half of the option's premium would trigger an exit. If you do not use a stop, the maximum loss is still limited to the $475 or less paid per option contract. The upside, on the other hand, is unlimited. And the January 2014 options give the bull trend about seven months to develop.
This trade breaks even at $40.75 ($36 strike plus $4.75 options premium). That is only about $1 above EEM's current price. If shares hit a conservative target of $47, then the call options would have $11 of intrinsic value and deliver a gain of 132%.
Recommended Trade Setup:
-- Buy EEM Jan 2014 36 Calls at $4.75 or less-- Set stop-loss at $2.37-- Set initial price target at $11 for a potential 132% gain in seven months
For more analysis on EEM, see the video below (starting at 2:27):
Twenty years ago, one of my competitors complimented all the effort I was putting into my trades… and then told me I was doing it all wrong.
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