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A 15%-plus jump in the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) took the fund from close to $68 in November to a 52-week high just over $80 in March. And while the recent pullback has knocked XLE off its highs, it has held its ground at $74, the midpoint support, which is a bullish sign. Oil has also broken out to the upside after trading between $86 and $90 a barrel for the past week, another bullish sign.
With crude oil prices retreating, Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) shares fell near their six-month lows before recovering back into the trading range. The April decline now appears to be the third failed downside attempt below $86. The sideways action from $92 to $86 targets a $6 move on an upside breakout to $98 per share.
The $98 target is about 10% higher than current prices, but traders who use a capital-preserving, stock substitution strategy could see gains of more than 75% on a move to this level.
One major advantage of using long call options rather than buying a stock outright is putting up much less capital to control 100 shares -- that's the power of leverage. But with all of the potential strike and expiration combinations, choosing an option can be a daunting task.
Simply put, you want to buy a high-probability option that has enough time to be right, so there are two rules traders should follow:
Rule One: Choose an option with a delta of 70 or above.
An option's strike price is the level at which the options buyer has the right to purchase the underlying stock or ETF without any obligation to do so. (In reality, you rarely convert the option into shares, but rather simply sell back the option you bought to exit the trade for a gain or loss.)
It is important to buy options that pay off from a modest price move in the underlying stock or ETF rather than those that only make money on the infrequent price explosion. In-the-money options are more expensive, but they're worth it, as your chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, out-of-the-money options that rarely pay off.
The options Greek delta approximates the odds that an option will be in the money at expiration. It is a measurement of how well an option follows the movement in the underlying security. You can find an option's delta using an options calculator, such as the one offered by the CBOE.
With XOM trading at about $89 at the time of this writing, an in-the-money $80 strike call option currently has $9 in real or intrinsic value. The remainder of the premium is the time value of the option. And this option currently has a delta of about 78.
Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need -- at least three to six months -- for the trade to develop.
Time is an investor's greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks. Traders often do not buy enough time for the trade to achieve profitable results. Nothing is more frustrating than being right about a move only after the option has expired.
With these rules in mind, I would recommend the XOM Jan 2014 80 Calls at $10.25 or less.
A close below $80 in the stock on a weekly basis or the loss of half of the option's premium would trigger an exit. If you do not use a stop, the maximum loss is still limited to the $1,025 or less paid per option contract. The upside, on the other hand, is unlimited. And the January 2014 options give the bull trend nine months to develop.
This trade breaks even at $90.25 ($80 strike plus $10.25 options premium). That is a little more than $1 above XOM's current price. If shares hit the upside breakout target of $98, then the call options would have $18 of intrinsic value and deliver a gain of more than 75%.
Recommended Trade Setup:
-- Buy XOM Jan 2014 80 Calls at $10.25 or less-- Set stop-loss at $5.12-- Set initial price target at $18 for a potential 76% gain in nine months
How the market resolves an indecision area this week could end up being the springboard for a new trend.
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