Traders Could More Than Double Their Money With This Oil Play
The Brazil turnaround story garnered headlines and investors' attention in the first half of the last decade. But the past two years have seen an economic slowdown and a pullback in stock prices that I believe signals a great long-term buying opportunity.
The drop in oil prices, after a double-digit gain from $85 in December to $98 in February, has seen energy stocks unwinding. But global political risks and potential disruption concerns always provide bullish price shock possibilities in crude.
I see the combination of Brazil and rising oil prices as an investment theme that is likely to do well in the future.
Petrobras (NYSE: PBR), an integrated oil and gas company in Brazil, fell from a peak at $77 to a low of $14 in 2008. The stock saw a recovery in 2009 to $53 before a long, long decline. It currently sits near $15, and I'm watching for a double-bottom to form at that $14 extreme low, which should act as a base.
The 2012 high at about $32 is more than 100% higher than the current price around the $15 area. A modest price objective is the halfway point of that 2012 high to 2013 lows, at about $23.50.
The $23.50 target is more than 50% higher than current prices, but traders who use a capital-preserving, stock substitution strategy could more than double their money on a move to that level.
One major advantage of using long call options rather than buying the stock outright is putting up much less to control 100 shares -- that's the power of leverage. But with all of the potential strike and expiration combinations, choosing an option can be a daunting task.
Simply put, you want to buy a high-probability option that has enough time to be right, so there are two rules traders should follow:
Rule One: Choose an option with 70%-plus probability.
An option's strike price is the level at which the options buyer has the right to purchase the underlying stock or ETF without any obligation to do so. (In reality, you rarely convert the option into shares, but rather simply sell back the option you bought to exit the trade for a gain or loss.)
Any trade has a 50/50 chance of success. Buying in-the-money options increases that probability. It is important to buy options that pay off from a modest price move in the underlying stock or ETF rather than those that only make money on the infrequent price explosion. In-the-money options are more expensive, but they're worth it, as your chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, out-of-the-money options that rarely pay off.
The options Greek delta also approximates the odds that the option will be in the money at expiration. Delta is a measurement of how well an option follows the movement in the underlying security.
With PBR stock trading at about $15.25 at the time of this writing, an in-the-money $10 strike call currently has $5.25 in real or intrinsic value. The remainder of any premium is the time value of the option.
Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need -- at least three to six months -- for the trade to develop.
Time is an investor's greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks. Traders often do not buy enough time for the trade to achieve profitable results. Nothing is more frustrating than being right about a move only after the option has expired.
With these rules in mind, I would recommend the PBR Jan 2015 10 Calls at $6 or less.
A close below $10 in the stock on a weekly basis or the loss of half of the option premium would trigger an exit. If you do not use a stop, the maximum loss is still limited to the $600 or less paid per option contract. The upside, on the other hand, is unlimited. And the January 2015 options give the bull trend almost two years to develop.
This trade breaks even at $16 ($10 strike plus $6 option premium). That is less than $1 above PBR's current price. If shares hit the upside breakout target of $23.50, then the call options would have $13.50 of intrinsic value and deliver a gain of 125%.
Recommended Trade Setup:
-- Buy PBR Jan 2015 10 Calls at $6 or less
-- Set stop-loss at $3
-- Set initial price target at $13.50 for a potential 125% gain in 23 months